Red Corner
Duško
Todorović
Todorović
13-6-0 Orthodox · Serbia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Robert
Valentin
Valentin
12-6-0 Orthodox · Switzerland
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
56%
Robert Valentin -140
Model reads
55%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▲ +1
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin | 19% | 24% | 13% |
| Todorović | 22% | 11% | 13% |
Goes the distance25%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 10 and 4; Valentin's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Valentin by Submission (24%). 75% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Valentin
Striking volume: 4.7/min vs 1.3/min
favors Todorović
Reach: 74" vs 77"
favors Valentin
Takedown pace: 1.8/15min vs 0.6/15min
favors Todorović
Striking accuracy: 58% vs 56%
favors Todorović
Submission threat: 0.4/15min vs 1.8/15min
favors Valentin
Career record: 13-6-0 vs 12-6-0
favors Todorović
Swept 19 / 19 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:18 AM ET