Red Corner
Marcin
Tybura
Tybura
27-11-0 Orthodox · Poland
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Aleksandar
Rakic
Rakic
14-6-0 Orthodox · Serbia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
72%
Aleksandar Rakic -300
Model reads
72%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▲ +0
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rakic | 38% | 10% | 24% |
| Tybura | 10% | 4% | 14% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — Tybura's chin cracked in a recent fight; Rakic's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Rakic by KO/TKO (38%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Rakic
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 1-4
favors Tybura
Age: 40 vs 34
favors Rakic
Knockdown power: 0.00/15min vs 0.42/15min
favors Rakic
Finish rate: 36% vs 71% of wins
favors Rakic
Durability (KO losses): 5 vs 3 in UFC
favors Rakic
Takedown pace: 1.3/15min vs 0.5/15min
favors Tybura
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:17 AM ET