Red Corner
Daniel
Rodriguez
Rodriguez
20-5-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Uroš
Medić
Medić
13-3-0 Southpaw · Serbia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
72%
Uroš Medić -285
Model reads
78%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -6
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medić | 52% | 13% | 14% |
| Rodriguez | 10% | 3% | 8% |
Goes the distance22%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Medić's stoppages cluster in R1; Rodriguez has been finished around R1 — the histograms meet at R1.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Medić by KO/TKO (52%). 78% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Medić
Knockdown power: 0.59/15min vs 3.42/15min
favors Medić
Age: 39 vs 33
favors Medić
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 4-1
favors Medić
Striking volume: 7.2/min vs 5.6/min
favors Rodriguez
Finish rate: 56% vs 100% of wins
favors Medić
Reach: 74" vs 71"
favors Rodriguez
Swept 20 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:18 AM ET