Final · Asu Almabayev wins · Submission — Suloev Stretch · R3
Red Corner
Asu
Almabayev
Almabayev
24-3-0 Orthodox · Kazakhstan
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Charles
Johnson
Johnson
19-9-0 Switch · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almabayev | 23% | 25% | 31% |
| Johnson | 9% | 3% | 9% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 8 and 15. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Almabayev by Decision (31%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Almabayev
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 2-3
favors Almabayev
Career record: 24-3-0 vs 19-9-0
favors Almabayev
Takedown pace: 4.7/15min vs 0.5/15min
favors Almabayev
Striking volume: 2.3/min vs 4.5/min
favors Johnson
Reach: 65" vs 70"
favors Johnson
Age: 32 vs 35
favors Almabayev
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:03 AM ET