Final · Abus Magomedov wins · Submission — Guillotine Choke · R1
Red Corner
Abus
Magomedov
Magomedov
29-7-1 Orthodox · Germany
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Michal
Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk
22-10-0 Southpaw · Poland
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov | 22% | 17% | 16% |
| Oleksiejczuk | 29% | 5% | 12% |
Goes the distance28%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 8 and 19. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO (29%). 72% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Oleksiejczuk
Career record: 29-7-1 vs 22-10-0
favors Magomedov
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Magomedov
Striking volume: 2.9/min vs 5.7/min
favors Oleksiejczuk
Knockdown power: 0.37/15min vs 1.11/15min
favors Oleksiejczuk
Age: 35 vs 31
favors Oleksiejczuk
Takedown pace: 2.4/15min vs 1.0/15min
favors Magomedov
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET