Final · Matheus Camilo wins · KO/TKO — Punch · R1
Red Corner
Nazim
Sadykhov
Sadykhov
11-3-1 Southpaw · Azerbaijan
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Matheus
Camilo
Camilo
11-3-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo | 33% | 14% | 24% |
| Sadykhov | 17% | 5% | 7% |
Goes the distance31%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 7 and 3; Sadykhov's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Camilo by KO/TKO (33%). 69% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Camilo
Recent form (last 5): 2-2-1 vs 4-1
favors Camilo
Age: 32 vs 25
favors Camilo
Takedown pace: 1.1/15min vs 4.2/15min
favors Camilo
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Camilo
Striking volume: 4.7/min vs 2.2/min
favors Sadykhov
Finish rate: 91% vs 64% of wins
favors Sadykhov
Swept 15 / 14 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET