Final · Shara Magomedov wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Michel
Pereira
Pereira
32-15-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Shara
Magomedov
Magomedov
17-1-0 Orthodox · Russia
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov | 45% | 9% | 30% |
| Pereira | 6% | 4% | 6% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 16 and 7. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Magomedov by KO/TKO (45%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Magomedov
Recent form (last 5): 1-4 vs 4-1
favors Magomedov
Career record: 32-15-0 vs 17-1-0
favors Magomedov
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 0 in UFC
favors Magomedov
Striking accuracy: 51% vs 63%
favors Magomedov
Takedown pace: 1.1/15min vs 0.0/15min
favors Pereira
Striking volume: 4.3/min vs 5.5/min
favors Magomedov
Swept 20 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET