Red Corner
Mackenzie
Dern
Dern
16-5-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Gillian
Robertson
Robertson
17-8-0 Orthodox · Canada
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
64%
Mackenzie Dern -198
Model reads
58%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -5
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dern | 15% | 20% | 23% |
| Robertson | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Goes the distance38%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (16 and 19 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Dern by Decision (23%). 62% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Dern
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 5-0
favors Robertson
Career record: 16-5-0 vs 17-8-0
favors Dern
Takedown pace: 0.9/15min vs 2.8/15min
favors Robertson
Striking accuracy: 42% vs 48%
favors Robertson
Striking volume: 3.2/min vs 2.7/min
favors Dern
Finish rate: 53% vs 71% of wins
favors Robertson
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET