Red Corner
Islam
Makhachev
Makhachev
28-1-0 Southpaw · Russia
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Ian
Machado Garry
Machado Garry
17-1-0 Orthodox · Ireland
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
74%
Islam Makhachev -345
Model reads
76%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▲ +2
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Makhachev | 25% | 26% | 25% |
| Machado Garry | 10% | 3% | 10% |
Goes the distance35%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (18 and 11 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Makhachev by Submission (26%). 65% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Makhachev
Recent form (last 5): 5-0 vs 4-1
favors Makhachev
Age: 34 vs 28
favors Machado Garry
Takedown pace: 3.1/15min vs 0.9/15min
favors Makhachev
Striking volume: 2.4/min vs 4.8/min
favors Machado Garry
Reach: 70.5" vs 74.5"
favors Machado Garry
Career record: 28-1-0 vs 17-1-0
favors Makhachev
Swept 20 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:12 AM ET