Final · Brandon Royval wins · Submission — Rear Naked Choke · R3
Red Corner
Brandon
Royval
Royval
18-9-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Lone'er
Kavanagh
Kavanagh
10-2-0 Orthodox · England
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kavanagh | 26% | 9% | 25% |
| Royval | 13% | 14% | 13% |
Goes the distance38%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 13 and 5; Royval's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Kavanagh by KO/TKO (26%). 62% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Kavanagh
Career record: 18-9-0 vs 10-2-0
favors Kavanagh
Age: 33 vs 27
favors Kavanagh
Striking volume: 5.6/min vs 4.1/min
favors Royval
Striking accuracy: 43% vs 50%
favors Kavanagh
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 3-2
favors Royval
Submission threat: 1.2/15min vs 0.4/15min
favors Royval
Swept 20 / 12 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:08 AM ET