Final · Mario Bautista wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Cory
Sandhagen
Sandhagen
18-7-0 Switch · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Mario
Bautista
Bautista
18-3-0 Switch · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bautista | 24% | 24% | 30% |
| Sandhagen | 11% | 3% | 8% |
Goes the distance38%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Bautista's stoppages cluster in R1; Sandhagen has been finished around R1 — the histograms meet at R1.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Bautista by Decision (30%). 62% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Bautista
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 4-1
favors Bautista
Career record: 18-7-0 vs 18-3-0
favors Bautista
Takedown pace: 1.1/15min vs 2.5/15min
favors Bautista
Submission threat: 0.2/15min vs 1.1/15min
favors Bautista
Striking accuracy: 45% vs 50%
favors Bautista
Striking volume: 4.9/min vs 5.5/min
favors Bautista
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:09 AM ET