Final · Paddy Pimblett wins · Submission — D'Arce Choke · R1
Red Corner
Paddy
Pimblett
Pimblett
24-4-0 Orthodox · England
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Benoît
Saint Denis
Saint Denis
17-4-0 Southpaw · France
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Denis | 25% | 21% | 9% |
| Pimblett | 16% | 16% | 13% |
Goes the distance21%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Saint Denis finishes most in R2, but Pimblett has never been stopped in the UFC — that durability drags the peak later.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Saint Denis by KO/TKO (25%). 79% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Saint Denis
Takedown pace: 0.7/15min vs 4.1/15min
favors Saint Denis
Career record: 24-4-0 vs 17-4-0
favors Pimblett
Knockdown power: 0.34/15min vs 0.86/15min
favors Saint Denis
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Pimblett
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 2 in UFC
favors Pimblett
Striking accuracy: 53% vs 58%
favors Saint Denis
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:08 AM ET