Final · Max Holloway wins · KO/TKO — Injury · R1
Red Corner
Max
Holloway
Holloway
28-9-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Conor
McGregor
McGregor
22-7-0 Southpaw · Ireland
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holloway | 31% | 7% | 29% |
| McGregor | 21% | 4% | 7% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — McGregor's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Holloway by KO/TKO (31%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Holloway
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 1-4
favors Holloway
Striking volume: 7.4/min vs 4.6/min
favors Holloway
Knockdown power: 0.23/15min vs 1.48/15min
favors McGregor
Age: 34 vs 38
favors Holloway
Reach: 69" vs 74"
favors McGregor
Finish rate: 50% vs 87% of wins
favors McGregor
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET