Final · Iwo Baraniewski wins · KO/TKO — Kick · R1
Red Corner
Junior
Tafa
Tafa
7-6-0 Orthodox · Australia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Iwo
Baraniewski
Baraniewski
9-0-0 Orthodox · Poland
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baraniewski | 54% | 16% | 15% |
| Tafa | 10% | 2% | 3% |
Goes the distance18%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 9 and 3; Tafa's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Baraniewski by KO/TKO (54%). 82% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Baraniewski
Career record: 7-6-0 vs 9-0-0
favors Baraniewski
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Baraniewski
Knockdown power: 0.53/15min vs 20.27/15min
favors Baraniewski
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Baraniewski
Striking volume: 3.5/min vs 11.4/min
favors Baraniewski
Takedown pace: 0.0/15min vs 0.0/15min
favors Baraniewski
Swept 13 / 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:08 AM ET