Final · Bryce Mitchell wins · Submission — Arm Triangle · R3
Red Corner
Bryce
Mitchell
Mitchell
19-4-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Santiago
Luna
Luna
8-1-0 Orthodox · Mexico
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luna | 30% | 22% | 14% |
| Mitchell | 9% | 11% | 14% |
Goes the distance28%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 12 and 3. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Luna by KO/TKO (30%). 72% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Luna
Age: 31 vs 21
favors Luna
Striking volume: 2.1/min vs 4.7/min
favors Luna
Career record: 19-4-0 vs 8-1-0
favors Luna
Takedown pace: 3.0/15min vs 2.3/15min
favors Mitchell
Knockdown power: 0.09/15min vs 0.92/15min
favors Luna
Reach: 70" vs 74"
favors Luna
Swept 20 / 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:08 AM ET