Final · Tom Nolan wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Farés
Ziam
Ziam
18-5-0 Orthodox · France
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Tom
Nolan
Nolan
11-1-0 Southpaw · Australia
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan | 32% | 13% | 25% |
| Ziam | 12% | 5% | 12% |
Goes the distance37%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 11 and 6. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Nolan by KO/TKO (32%). 63% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Nolan
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 5-0
favors Nolan
Career record: 18-5-0 vs 11-1-0
favors Nolan
Striking volume: 2.7/min vs 4.8/min
favors Nolan
Age: 29 vs 26
favors Nolan
Takedown pace: 1.9/15min vs 1.1/15min
favors Ziam
Striking accuracy: 52% vs 46%
favors Ziam
Swept 20 / 12 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET