Final · Gabriel Bonfim wins · Decision - Unanimous · R5
Red Corner
Belal
Muhammad
Muhammad
24-6-0 Orthodox · Palestine
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Gabriel
Bonfim
Bonfim
20-1-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonfim | 29% | 33% | 23% |
| Muhammad | 4% | 2% | 9% |
Goes the distance32%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 8. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Bonfim by Submission (33%). 68% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Bonfim
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Bonfim
Career record: 24-6-0 vs 20-1-0
favors Bonfim
Age: 38 vs 28
favors Bonfim
Finish rate: 14% vs 84% of wins
favors Bonfim
Submission threat: 0.1/15min vs 1.0/15min
favors Bonfim
Striking accuracy: 43% vs 47%
favors Bonfim
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:02 AM ET