Final · Modestas Bukauskas wins · Decision - Split · R3
Red Corner
Modestas
Bukauskas
Bukauskas
20-7-0 Switch · Lithuania
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Christian
Edwards
Edwards
8-5-0 -- · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bukauskas | 27% | 9% | 22% |
| Edwards | 20% | 6% | 15% |
Goes the distance37%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 13 and 1; Bukauskas's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Bukauskas by KO/TKO (27%). 63% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Bukauskas
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Bukauskas
Career record: 20-7-0 vs 8-5-0
favors Bukauskas
Age: 32 vs 27
favors Edwards
Durability (KO losses): 4 vs 1 in UFC
favors Edwards
Reach: 76" vs 78.5"
favors Edwards
Finish rate: 67% vs 75% of wins
favors Edwards
Swept 20 / 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET