Final · Juan Diaz wins · Submission — Rear Naked Choke · R2
Red Corner
Malcolm
Wellmaker
Wellmaker
10-2-0 Switch · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Juan
Diaz
Diaz
16-1-1 Orthodox · Peru
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diaz | 32% | 16% | 28% |
| Wellmaker | 14% | 4% | 6% |
Goes the distance35%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 4 and 1. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Diaz by KO/TKO (32%). 65% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Diaz
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 5-0
favors Diaz
Career record: 10-2-0 vs 16-1-1
favors Diaz
Takedown pace: 0.0/15min vs 5.5/15min
favors Diaz
Age: 32 vs 28
favors Diaz
Knockdown power: 1.44/15min vs 0.79/15min
favors Wellmaker
Finish rate: 80% vs 50% of wins
favors Wellmaker
Swept 12 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET