Final · Arnold Allen wins · Decision - Unanimous · R5
Red Corner
Arnold
Allen
Allen
21-4-0 Southpaw · England
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Melquizael
Costa
Costa
26-8-0 Southpaw · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costa | 26% | 15% | 21% |
| Allen | 15% | 6% | 17% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (15 and 10 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Costa by KO/TKO (26%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Costa
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 4-1
favors Costa
Career record: 21-4-0 vs 26-8-0
favors Allen
Age: 32 vs 29
favors Costa
Striking volume: 3.4/min vs 4.3/min
favors Costa
Finish rate: 44% vs 67% of wins
favors Costa
Submission threat: 0.3/15min vs 0.8/15min
favors Costa
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET