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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. StricklandWelterweight3 RoundsSat, May 9
Final · Sean Brady wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Joaquin
Buckley
21-8-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Sean
Brady
19-2-0 Orthodox · USA
26Buckley
74Brady · Favored
Pick · Sean Brady · SOLIDModel reads 74%Capped at 85% by design
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
KO / TKOSubDec
Brady22%19%33%
Buckley15%3%8%
Goes the distance41%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
11%
R1
22%
R2
26%
R3
R4
R5
41%
Dist
Exact round is withheld — Brady's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Brady by Decision (33%). 59% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Brady
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 4-1
favors Brady
Career record: 21-8-0 vs 19-2-0
favors Brady
Takedown pace: 1.4/15min vs 3.6/15min
favors Brady
Striking accuracy: 36% vs 53%
favors Brady
Knockdown power: 0.68/15min vs 0.10/15min
favors Buckley
Reach: 76" vs 72"
favors Buckley
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:03 AM ET