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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. StricklandHeavyweight3 RoundsSat, May 9
Final · Alexander Volkov wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Alexander
Volkov
40-11-0 Orthodox · Russia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Waldo
Cortes Acosta
17-3-0 Orthodox · Dominican Republic
52Volkov · Favored
48Cortes Acosta
Pick · Alexander Volkov · LEANModel reads 52%Capped at 85% by design
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
KO / TKOSubDec
Volkov23%7%22%
Cortes Acosta24%6%18%
Goes the distance40%
Round projection
Goes the distance
25%
R1
15%
R2
20%
R3
R4
R5
40%
Dist
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (19 and 13 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (24%). 60% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Cortes Acosta
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Volkov
Career record: 40-11-0 vs 17-3-0
favors Cortes Acosta
Age: 37 vs 34
favors Cortes Acosta
Striking accuracy: 58% vs 49%
favors Volkov
Knockdown power: 0.24/15min vs 0.70/15min
favors Cortes Acosta
Reach: 80" vs 78"
favors Volkov
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:07 AM ET