Final · Sean Strickland wins · Decision - Split · R5
Red Corner
Sean
Strickland
Strickland
31-7-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Khamzat
Chimaev
Chimaev
15-1-0 Orthodox · United Arab Emirates
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
65%
Khamzat Chimaev -205
Model reads
72%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chimaev | 30% | 22% | 19% |
| Strickland | 10% | 3% | 15% |
Goes the distance34%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Chimaev's stoppages cluster in R1; Strickland has been finished around R1 — the histograms meet at R1.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Chimaev by KO/TKO (30%). 66% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Chimaev
Takedown pace: 0.4/15min vs 5.3/15min
favors Chimaev
Career record: 31-7-0 vs 15-1-0
favors Chimaev
Striking volume: 6.3/min vs 4.0/min
favors Strickland
Striking accuracy: 43% vs 54%
favors Chimaev
Age: 35 vs 32
favors Chimaev
Finish rate: 29% vs 80% of wins
favors Chimaev
Swept 20 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET