Final · Josh Hokit wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R2
Red Corner
Derrick
Lewis
Lewis
29-14-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Josh
Hokit
Hokit
10-0-0 Orthodox · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hokit | 48% | 20% | 17% |
| Lewis | 9% | 2% | 5% |
Goes the distance22%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 4; Lewis's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Hokit by KO/TKO (48%). 78% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Hokit
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Hokit
Career record: 29-14-0 vs 10-0-0
favors Hokit
Striking volume: 2.0/min vs 9.3/min
favors Hokit
Age: 41 vs 28
favors Hokit
Durability (KO losses): 6 vs 0 in UFC
favors Hokit
Takedown pace: 0.5/15min vs 3.7/15min
favors Hokit
Swept 20 / 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:07 AM ET