Final · Diego Lopes wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R2
Red Corner
Steve
Garcia
Garcia
19-6-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Diego
Lopes
Lopes
28-8-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia | 36% | 7% | 14% |
| Lopes | 21% | 11% | 12% |
Goes the distance26%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — Garcia's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Garcia by KO/TKO (36%). 74% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Garcia
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Garcia
Knockdown power: 1.86/15min vs 0.71/15min
favors Garcia
Age: 34 vs 31
favors Lopes
Striking volume: 5.4/min vs 3.8/min
favors Garcia
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Lopes
Submission threat: 0.4/15min vs 1.3/15min
favors Lopes
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET