Final · Mauricio Ruffy wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R1
Red Corner
Michael
Chandler
Chandler
23-11-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Mauricio
Ruffy
Ruffy
14-2-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruffy | 59% | 9% | 17% |
| Chandler | 7% | 3% | 5% |
Goes the distance22%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 8 and 6; Chandler's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Ruffy by KO/TKO (59%). 78% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Ruffy
Recent form (last 5): 1-4 vs 4-1
favors Ruffy
Career record: 23-11-0 vs 14-2-0
favors Ruffy
Age: 40 vs 30
favors Ruffy
Knockdown power: 0.36/15min vs 1.54/15min
favors Ruffy
Durability (KO losses): 6 vs 1 in UFC
favors Ruffy
Takedown pace: 1.6/15min vs 0.0/15min
favors Chandler
Swept 20 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET