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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. GaethjeBantamweight3 RoundsSun, Jun 14
Final · Sean O'Malley wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R2
Red Corner
Aiemann
Zahabi
14-3-0 Orthodox · Canada
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Sean
O'Malley
20-3-0 Switch · USA
33Zahabi
67O'Malley · Favored
Pick · Sean O'Malley · SOLIDModel reads 67%Capped at 85% by design
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
KO / TKOSubDec
O'Malley38%8%22%
Zahabi14%5%13%
Goes the distance35%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
24%
R1
18%
R2
23%
R3
R4
R5
35%
Dist
Exact round is withheld — Zahabi's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: O'Malley by KO/TKO (38%). 65% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors O'Malley
Age: 38 vs 31
favors O'Malley
Striking accuracy: 48% vs 60%
favors O'Malley
Striking volume: 4.3/min vs 6.0/min
favors O'Malley
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Zahabi
Career record: 14-3-0 vs 20-3-0
favors O'Malley
Knockdown power: 0.33/15min vs 0.70/15min
favors O'Malley
Swept 17 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET