Final · Ciryl Gane wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R2
Red Corner
Ciryl
Gane
Gane
14-2-0 Orthodox · France
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Alex
Pereira
Pereira
13-4-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gane | 33% | 15% | 23% |
| Pereira | 18% | 3% | 8% |
Goes the distance31%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — Pereira's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Gane by KO/TKO (33%). 69% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Gane
Recent form (last 5): 3-1-1 vs 3-2
favors Gane
Career record: 14-2-0 vs 13-4-0
favors Gane
Age: 36 vs 39
favors Gane
Knockdown power: 0.33/15min vs 0.75/15min
favors Pereira
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 2 in UFC
favors Gane
Reach: 81" vs 79"
favors Gane
Swept 17 / 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET