Final · Justin Gaethje wins · KO/TKO · R4
Red Corner
Justin
Gaethje
Gaethje
28-5-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Ilia
Topuria
Topuria
17-1-0 Orthodox · Georgia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
69%
Ilia Topuria -250
Model reads
73%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -4
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topuria | 35% | 23% | 15% |
| Gaethje | 16% | 3% | 9% |
Goes the distance24%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — Topuria's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Topuria by KO/TKO (35%). 76% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Topuria
Age: 37 vs 29
favors Topuria
Career record: 28-5-0 vs 17-1-0
favors Topuria
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Gaethje
Striking volume: 6.3/min vs 4.2/min
favors Gaethje
Takedown pace: 0.3/15min vs 1.5/15min
favors Topuria
Striking accuracy: 58% vs 50%
favors Gaethje
Swept 20 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET