Final · Marwan Rahiki wins · KO/TKO — Punch · R1
Red Corner
Marwan
Rahiki
Rahiki
9-0-0 Orthodox · Morocco
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Ollie
Schmid
Schmid
4-3-0 -- · New Zealand
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rahiki | 57% | 15% | 13% |
| Schmid | 8% | 2% | 5% |
Goes the distance19%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 2 and 1; Schmid's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Rahiki by KO/TKO (57%). 81% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Rahiki
Career record: 9-0-0 vs 4-3-0
favors Rahiki
Recent form (last 5): 5-0 vs 3-2
favors Rahiki
Reach: 72" vs —
favors Rahiki
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 2 in UFC
favors Rahiki
Finish rate: 100% vs 75% of wins
favors Rahiki
Swept 9 / 7 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:08 AM ET