Final · Louie Sutherland wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Tai
Tuivasa
Tuivasa
15-10-0 Southpaw · Australia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Louie
Sutherland
Sutherland
11-5-0 Orthodox · England
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutherland | 41% | 8% | 29% |
| Tuivasa | 15% | 2% | 5% |
Goes the distance34%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 18 and 3; Sutherland's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Sutherland by KO/TKO (41%). 66% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Sutherland
Recent form (last 5): 0-5 vs 3-2
favors Sutherland
Career record: 15-10-0 vs 11-5-0
favors Sutherland
Takedown pace: 0.0/15min vs 4.9/15min
favors Sutherland
Knockdown power: 0.82/15min vs 0.00/15min
favors Tuivasa
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 1 in UFC
favors Sutherland
Striking accuracy: 49% vs 69%
favors Sutherland
Swept 20 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:07 AM ET