Final · Steve Erceg wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Tim
Elliott
Elliott
22-14-1 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Steve
Erceg
Erceg
14-4-0 Orthodox · Australia
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erceg | 20% | 19% | 27% |
| Elliott | 8% | 9% | 17% |
Goes the distance44%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 15 and 8. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Erceg by Decision (27%). 56% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Erceg
Career record: 22-14-1 vs 14-4-0
favors Erceg
Age: 39 vs 30
favors Erceg
Takedown pace: 3.1/15min vs 1.1/15min
favors Elliott
Striking volume: 2.8/min vs 4.6/min
favors Erceg
Striking accuracy: 43% vs 48%
favors Erceg
Reach: 66" vs 68"
favors Erceg
Swept 20 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET