Final · Carlos Prates wins · KO/TKO — Elbows · R3
Red Corner
Carlos
Prates
Prates
24-7-0 Switch · Brazil
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Jack
Della Maddalena
Della Maddalena
18-4-0 Switch · Australia
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prates | 47% | 7% | 13% |
| Della Maddalena | 18% | 5% | 10% |
Goes the distance23%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 8 and 10; Della Maddalena's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Prates by KO/TKO (47%). 77% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Prates
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 3-2
favors Prates
Knockdown power: 2.33/15min vs 0.68/15min
favors Prates
Reach: 78" vs 73"
favors Prates
Age: 32 vs 29
favors Della Maddalena
Career record: 24-7-0 vs 18-4-0
favors Della Maddalena
Striking volume: 4.4/min vs 5.3/min
favors Della Maddalena
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:02 AM ET