Final · Ryan Spann wins · KO/TKO — Punch · R2
Red Corner
Ryan
Spann
Spann
24-11-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Marcus
Buchecha
Buchecha
5-3-1 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spann | 35% | 24% | 13% |
| Buchecha | 9% | 12% | 7% |
Goes the distance20%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 16 and 3; Buchecha's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Spann by KO/TKO (35%). 80% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Spann
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 1-3-1
favors Spann
Knockdown power: 1.06/15min vs 0.00/15min
favors Spann
Career record: 24-11-0 vs 5-3-1
favors Spann
Striking accuracy: 40% vs 50%
favors Buchecha
Submission threat: 1.7/15min vs 0.4/15min
favors Spann
Reach: 79" vs 77"
favors Spann
Swept 20 / 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET