Final · Rafa Garcia wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Alexander
Hernandez
Hernandez
18-9-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Rafa
Garcia
Garcia
19-4-0 Orthodox · Mexico
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia | 20% | 18% | 29% |
| Hernandez | 15% | 5% | 13% |
Goes the distance42%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (18 and 11 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Garcia by Decision (29%). 58% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Garcia
Career record: 18-9-0 vs 19-4-0
favors Garcia
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Garcia
Takedown pace: 1.0/15min vs 3.2/15min
favors Garcia
Knockdown power: 0.48/15min vs 0.10/15min
favors Hernandez
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 1 in UFC
favors Garcia
Reach: 72" vs 70"
favors Hernandez
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET