Final · Raoni Barcelos wins · Decision - Split · R3
Red Corner
Raoni
Barcelos
Barcelos
22-5-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Montel
Jackson
Jackson
15-4-0 Southpaw · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelos | 22% | 10% | 26% |
| Jackson | 23% | 6% | 13% |
Goes the distance40%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (14 and 13 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Barcelos by Decision (26%). 60% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Barcelos
Recent form (last 5): 5-0 vs 3-2
favors Barcelos
Knockdown power: 0.32/15min vs 1.27/15min
favors Jackson
Reach: 67" vs 75.5"
favors Jackson
Age: 39 vs 34
favors Jackson
Striking volume: 3.9/min vs 2.8/min
favors Barcelos
Career record: 22-5-0 vs 15-4-0
favors Barcelos
Swept 20 / 19 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:02 AM ET