Final · Aljamain Sterling wins · Decision - Unanimous · R5
Red Corner
Aljamain
Sterling
Sterling
26-5-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Youssef
Zalal
Zalal
18-6-1 Switch · Morocco
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zalal | 19% | 18% | 17% |
| Sterling | 13% | 9% | 25% |
Goes the distance42%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (20 and 13 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Sterling by Decision (25%). 58% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Sterling
Age: 36 vs 29
favors Zalal
Career record: 26-5-0 vs 18-6-1
favors Sterling
Striking volume: 4.4/min vs 2.8/min
favors Sterling
Finish rate: 27% vs 69% of wins
favors Zalal
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Zalal
Takedown pace: 2.4/15min vs 1.8/15min
favors Sterling
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:09 AM ET