Final · Gauge Young wins · Decision - Split · R3
Red Corner
Thiago
Moisés
Moisés
19-10-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Gauge
Young
Young
11-3-0 Orthodox · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Young | 38% | 11% | 31% |
| Moisés | 7% | 6% | 8% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 16 and 3; Moisés's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Young by KO/TKO (38%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Young
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 3-2
favors Young
Career record: 19-10-0 vs 11-3-0
favors Young
Striking volume: 2.5/min vs 6.3/min
favors Young
Age: 31 vs 26
favors Young
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 0 in UFC
favors Young
Striking accuracy: 42% vs 52%
favors Young
Swept 20 / 14 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET