Final · Mike Malott wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R3
Red Corner
Gilbert
Burns
Burns
22-10-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Mike
Malott
Malott
14-2-1 Orthodox · Canada
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malott | 41% | 25% | 19% |
| Burns | 5% | 3% | 7% |
Goes the distance26%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 8; Burns's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Malott by KO/TKO (41%). 74% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Malott
Recent form (last 5): 0-5 vs 4-1
favors Malott
Career record: 22-10-0 vs 14-2-1
favors Malott
Age: 40 vs 34
favors Malott
Knockdown power: 0.24/15min vs 0.97/15min
favors Malott
Durability (KO losses): 5 vs 2 in UFC
favors Malott
Finish rate: 45% vs 86% of wins
favors Malott
Swept 20 / 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:03 AM ET