Final · Jake Matthews wins · Decision - Unanimous · R3
Red Corner
Jake
Matthews
Matthews
23-8-0 Orthodox · Australia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Carlston
Harris
Harris
19-8-0 Orthodox · Guyana
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthews | 22% | 19% | 34% |
| Harris | 10% | 7% | 9% |
Goes the distance43%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 19 and 8; Harris's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Matthews by Decision (34%). 57% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Matthews
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 2-3
favors Matthews
Age: 31 vs 39
favors Matthews
Durability (KO losses): 1 vs 4 in UFC
favors Matthews
Career record: 23-8-0 vs 19-8-0
favors Matthews
Reach: 73" vs 76"
favors Harris
Finish rate: 38% vs 64% of wins
favors Harris
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET