Final · Sergei Pavlovich wins · KO/TKO — Punch · R1
Red Corner
Sergei
Pavlovich
Pavlovich
21-3-0 Southpaw · Russia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Tallison
Teixeira
Teixeira
9-2-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavlovich | 32% | 6% | 15% |
| Teixeira | 30% | 7% | 10% |
Goes the distance26%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 12 and 4; Teixeira's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Pavlovich by KO/TKO (32%). 74% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Pavlovich
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 3-2
favors Pavlovich
Age: 34 vs 26
favors Teixeira
Career record: 21-3-0 vs 9-2-0
favors Pavlovich
Knockdown power: 1.53/15min vs 1.60/15min
favors Pavlovich
Takedown pace: 0.4/15min vs 2.4/15min
favors Teixeira
Striking accuracy: 45% vs 63%
favors Teixeira
Swept 20 / 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:07 AM ET