Final · Alonzo Menifield wins · KO/TKO — Punch · R1
Red Corner
Alonzo
Menifield
Menifield
18-6-1 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Zhang
Mingyang
Mingyang
19-8-0 Orthodox · China
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mingyang | 33% | 9% | 9% |
| Menifield | 23% | 10% | 16% |
Goes the distance25%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 18 and 6; Menifield's chin cracked in a recent fight; Mingyang's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Mingyang by KO/TKO (33%). 75% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Mingyang
Age: 38 vs 27
favors Mingyang
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 3-2
favors Menifield
Career record: 18-6-1 vs 19-8-0
favors Menifield
Striking volume: 3.9/min vs 6.6/min
favors Mingyang
Finish rate: 69% vs 100% of wins
favors Mingyang
Striking accuracy: 54% vs 59%
favors Menifield
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET